11409 204th St · New York, NY 11412

$780,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1950 2,200 sqft lot Est $959k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Located at 114-09 204th Street in St. Albans, this bright, attached brick duplex is nestled in a residential neighborhood. The home features two bedrooms and one updated bathroom on each floor, with wooden floors throughout. The second floor boasts a beautiful chandelier and a modern accent wall in the living room and a beautiful, updated kitchen. The property offers ample natural sunlight, solar panels, a private driveway, and a beautifully updated kitchen. Spacious at 1,888 square feet, it’s close to schools and public transportation. This move-in ready home is waiting for you don’t miss the chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• 2,200 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; One parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $780k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-938/yr) — negative. Per door: $-39/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $766k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $592k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $592k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($757k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $780k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $592,200 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $959,104
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112-35 Francis Lewis Blvd	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,848 (-2%)	10mo	$890,000	$482	77
203-10 Murdock Ave	0.04mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (-12%)	2mo	$840,000	$508	71
115-16 199th St	0.32mi	5/4.0 (+1)	1,899 (+1%)	2mo	$1,080,000	$569	70
21511 111th Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,812 (-4%)	4mo	$890,000	$491	60
210-24 113 Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-11%)	15mo	$873,000	$522	50
194-16 116th Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+10%)	3mo	$980,000	$472	50
19514 Hollis Ave	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,109 (+12%)	0mo	$572,000	$271	41
10445 198th St	0.66mi	5/4.0 (+1)	1,740 (-8%)	4mo	$943,500	$542	40
10961 200th St	0.48mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,070 (+10%)	10mo	$1,100,000	$531	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-131,674
• Equity at exit: $116,301

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-122,293
• Equity at exit: $67,440

Cash invested: $218,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11412

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 22.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,297/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,244
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,021

Max offer price $766,185

Occupancy floor 96%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,922
Total (2 units)			$5,922

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $195,000
• Closing costs: $23,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20207 Linden Blvd Saint Albans, NY	3.0	1.0	1584	$3,400	$2.15	24d	1	0.40mi
205-11 Hollis Ave Unit 2nd Queens, NY	3.0	1.0	2020	$3,777	$1.87	24d	1	0.44mi
10933 Francis Lewis Blvd Queens Village, NY	3.0	1.5	1492	$4,000	$2.68	24d	1	0.48mi
200-03 109th Ave Unit 2nd flr Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	5d	1	0.58mi
191-28 114th Dr Unit 1 St. Albans, NY	3.0	2.0	1767	$3,150	$1.78	24d	1	0.59mi
21923 114th Rd Cambria Heights, NY	3.0	1.0	2200	$3,600	$1.64	4d	1	0.72mi
11521 222nd St Cambria Heights, NY	3.0	1.5	1250	$3,500	$2.80	24d	1	0.81mi
10713 220th St Queens Village, NY	4.0	2.0	1350	$4,999	$3.70	20d	1	0.98mi
22518 112th Ave Queens Village, NY	3.0	1.0	1452	$3,500	$2.41	19d	1	1.06mi
9050 Francis Lewis Blvd Queens Village, NY	3.0	1.5	2396	$3,000	$1.25	4d	1	1.13mi
182 Wellington Rd Elmont, NY	4.0	1.5	1920	$4,500	$2.34	1d	1	1.36mi
94-86 218th St Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,100	$1.55	11d	1	1.39mi
94-86 218th St Unit 1st Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	11d	1	1.39mi
11542 175th St Unit 2 Queens, NY	4.0	2.0	1650	$4,200	$2.55	24d	1	1.44mi
2225 Leighton Rd Elmont, NY	3.0	1.0	1316	$3,500	$2.66	17d	1	1.47mi
8789 191st St Hollis, NY	3.0	2.0	1374	$3,600	$2.62	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   listed $780,000 Active
3. 2026-04-06
   historical $780,000
4. 2010-06-01
   soldstatus $265,000
5. 1985-10-16
   soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,239 · $687/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,943/yr (+$412/mo · 149.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,692
• − Property taxes: −$3,297
• − Insurance: −$4,698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,685
• − Management: −$5,685
• − Depreciation: −$22,691
• Taxable loss: −$14,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,524
• After-tax cash flow: $2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 41,350

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% White 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -413.59%
• Current HPI: 302.063
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2788.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listed $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,297 · -37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.