1390 Vegas Valley Dr #26

Winchester, NV 89169

$119,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 863 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 443 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,948/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$277
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $554/mo
• Annual: $6,652/yr
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.96%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Robert E Es (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #280 of 402 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 100% FRL); Martin Roy W Ms (reading 31%, 1,271 students, 100% FRL); Valley Hs (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #107 of 131 statewide, top 82%, 2,714 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,948/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.