1390 Vegas Valley Dr #26 · Winchester, NV 89169

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 863 sqft · Condo public records · 443 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $138/sqft · 13% below area Est $136k · 13% under $277/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location Location! Just minutes from the world-renowned Strip. Charming floor plan with a cozy balcony to unwind and enjoy the city lights. Freshly painted and updated flooring throughout. Kitchen with freshly painted cabinets, bright sunny window and expansive counter space. Dining space can be used with a bit of creativity to function as an office if you work remotely. Over sized bedrooms. Primary with closet organization. Patio has storage options. Dedicated parking space with convenient street parking.

Key facts

• Cozy balcony
• $277 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• COZY BALCONY
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETS
• EXPANSIVE COUNTER SPACE
• DEDICATED PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Robert E Es (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #280 of 402 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 100% FRL); Martin Roy W Ms (reading 31%, 1,271 students, 100% FRL); Valley Hs (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #107 of 131 statewide, top 82%, 2,714 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,948/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.96%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,356
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -12.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
585 S Royal Crest Cir #7	1.33mi	2/1.0	816 (-5%)	2mo	$105,000	$129	54
1418 Griffith Ave	1.03mi	2/1.0	930 (+8%)	2mo	$329,000	$354	50
726 Tam O Shanter	0.66mi	2/1.0	952 (+10%)	2mo	$310,000	$326	50
322 Karen Ave #1106	1.06mi	1/1.5 (-1)	814 (-6%)	0mo	$305,000	$375	48
222 Karen Ave #1506	1.14mi	1/1.5 (-1)	814 (-6%)	0mo	$330,000	$405	48
222 Karen Ave #2003	1.14mi	1/1.5 (-1)	814 (-6%)	3mo	$345,000	$424	46
322 Karen Ave #2806	1.06mi	1/1.5 (-1)	814 (-6%)	4mo	$400,000	$491	45
650 Oakmont Ave #2111	0.87mi	1/1.0 (-1)	761 (-12%)	2mo	$153,500	$202	38
200 W Sahara Ave #3412	1.48mi	1/1.5 (-1)	974 (+13%)	3mo	$270,000	$277	34
1455 E Katie Ave Unit F12	1.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	724 (-16%)	2mo	$123,000	$170	33
1455 E Katie Ave Unit F26	1.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	724 (-16%)	4mo	$135,000	$186	32
1455 E Katie Ave Unit A21	1.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	723 (-16%)	4mo	$140,000	$194	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,442
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $33,016
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $115,000 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 89169

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$277
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $588	+0% $554	+5% $521	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $477	+0% $554	+5% $631	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $614	-0.5pp $585	base $554	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,800	$1.67	93d	5	0.72mi
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	93d	1	0.86mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	93d	1	0.90mi
3152 S Eastern Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	72d	1	0.94mi
3168 S Eastern Ave #48 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	671	$1,600	$2.38	42d	1	0.95mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	93d	3	1.02mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	53d	3	1.06mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1230	$4,500	$3.66	30d	4	1.06mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1230	$4,150	$3.37	9d	3	1.06mi
1021 Griffith Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1094	$2,200	$2.01	93d	1	1.13mi
222 Karen Ave #3203 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,500	$3.07	93d	1	1.14mi
222 Karen Ave #306 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,300	$2.83	93d	1	1.14mi
222 Karen Ave #1105 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$1,990	$2.44	93d	1	1.14mi
222 Karen Ave #2904 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,200	$2.70	51d	1	1.14mi
222 Karen Ave #1004 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,300	$2.83	72d	1	1.14mi
222 Karen Ave #3005 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,400	$2.95	72d	1	1.14mi
1601 E Katie Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,852	$2.29	93d	13	1.19mi
2744 Karen Ave Unit 1 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	875	$1,295	$1.48	28d	1	1.22mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	93d	1	1.23mi
2137 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,700	$1.65	93d	1	1.25mi
1700 E Viking Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,662	$1.53	93d	3	1.26mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	93d	1	1.28mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,425	$1.50	93d	20	1.36mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	93d	2	1.45mi
200 W Sahara Ave #1611 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	93d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail $277/mo · $3,324/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $119,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 435 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 434 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 433 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 432 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $119,000 Active 430 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $119,000 Active 428 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $119,000 Active 427 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 426 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 425 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $119,000 Active 424 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 422 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 421 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $119,000 Active 420 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $119,000 Active 419 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $119,000 Active 418 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 417 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 416 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $119,000 Active 415 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $119,000 Active 414 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 413 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 411 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $119,000 Active 410 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 409 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 407 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 406 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 405 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 404 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $119,000 Active 403 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $119,000 Active 402 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 401 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $119,000 Active 400 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $119,000 Active 398 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $119,000 Active 396 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $119,000 Active 395 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $119,000 Active 392 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $119,000 Active 391 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $119,000 Active 390 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $119,000 Active 389 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $119,000 Active 387 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,000 Active 383 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 382 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 381 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 377 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 376 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $702 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$25/mo · 72.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − HOA: −$3,324
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $5,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $5,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,315–$12,945 screening

This townhouse is in good condition with fresh updates and a good location. It has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Fresh flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained garden can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Robert E Es F NV #280/402 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 Middle Martin Roy W Ms High Valley Hs F NV #107/131 Nat'l #15,203/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,504,101 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 22,171
• Household income: $40,904
• Rent vs Own: 80.7% rent · 19.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 33% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.91%
• Current HPI: 272.6449
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.43%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+116.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $119,000 GLVAR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $139,000 GLVAR
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $149,000 GLVAR
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2025-05-22 Listed $155,000 GLVAR
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $159,000 GLVAR
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $169,000 GLVAR
• 2025-03-07 Listed $179,000 GLVAR
• 2025-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-23 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2009-01-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GLVAR
• 2008-12-24 Listed $30,000 GLVAR
• 1996-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $408 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.