15 Lobue Ln

Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$31,900B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$167
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $653/mo
• Annual: $7,837/yr
• Cap rate: 30.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.74%
• DSCR: 4.90
• 1% rule: 3.53%
• Cash to close: $8,932

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $957 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Lancaster Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #234 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.