15 Lobue Ln · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$31,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $46k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath single wide mobile home in Sky Harbor East. Mobile Home needs some tender care and updating. Appliances are dated and included in sale. Has 1 carport enclosed with lattice for privacy! Perfect size in a perfect park! Priced right to sell quickly! Taxes are included in monthly lot rent.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1992
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Lancaster Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #234 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $957 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $31,421 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.74%
• DSCR: 4.90
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,176
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Lobue Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-4%)	18mo	$14,000	$23	71
11 Melody Ln	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+8%)	6mo	$50,000	$74	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $36,451
• Equity at exit: $4,756

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.56×
• Total profit: $85,409
• Equity at exit: $2,758

Cash invested: $8,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$167
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $679/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $300

Max offer price $31,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,975
• Closing costs: $957
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4925 Genesee St Cheektowaga, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$1,059	$1.56	19d	1	0.33mi
5841 Transit Rd Unit 3 Depew, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,335	$1.78	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $31,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $31,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-01-21
    status Pending
12. 2025-12-13
    price $31,900
13. 2025-11-09
    listed $39,900 Active
14. 2022-11-28
    soldstatus $27,000 Closed Sale or Rented 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath single wide mobile home in Sky Harbor East. Mobile Home needs some tender care and updating. Appliances are dated and included in sale. Has 1 carport enclosed with lattice for privacy! Perfect size in a perfect park! Priced right to sell quickly! Taxes are included in monthly lot rent.

15. 2022-11-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath single wide mobile home in Sky Harbor East. Mobile Home needs some tender care and updating. Appliances are dated and included in sale. Has 1 carport enclosed with lattice for privacy! Perfect size in a perfect park! Priced right to sell quickly! Taxes are included in monthly lot rent.

16. 2022-09-12
    listed $29,900 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath single wide mobile home in Sky Harbor East. Mobile Home needs some tender care and updating. Appliances are dated and included in sale. Has 1 carport enclosed with lattice for privacy! Perfect size in a perfect park! Priced right to sell quickly! Taxes are included in monthly lot rent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,787
• − Property taxes: −$679
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$928
• Taxable income: $7,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,873
• After-tax cash flow: $5,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,668
• Composite: 51.64/100
• National rank: #1700
• State rank: #234 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $31,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-28 Sold (MLS) $27,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $679 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.