2551 Lake Shore Dr

Niles, MI 49120

$129,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $546/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($546/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Niles Community Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #248 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 35 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $130k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.