2551 Lake Shore Dr · Niles, MI 49120

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1940 6,297 sqft lot Est $140k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Fenced backyard
• 6,297 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEWER FURNACE
• RUSTIC KNOTTY PINE WALLS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD FEEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1940
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (19 x 15); Bedroom 2 (22 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($546/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Niles Community Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #248 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 35 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $130k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,252 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,536
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2590 Lake Shore Dr	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	836 (+2%)	12mo	$155,000	$185	72
1233 Broad St	0.51mi	1/2.0 (-1)	769 (-6%)	13mo	$108,000	$140	47
1227 Huntly Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	892 (+9%)	20mo	$152,500	$171	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-18,217
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-12,390
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49120

• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $129,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

17. 2026-05-15
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

18. 2026-05-15
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

19. 2026-05-09
    listed $129,900 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

20. 2026-05-09
    listed $129,900 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

21. 2026-05-09
    listed $129,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in sought-after Howard Township near beautiful Barron Lake. This affordable home offers a 1-car attached garage, fenced backyard, and a newer furnace installed in 2021 for added peace of mind. Upstairs, you'll love the rustic knotty pine walls and ceiling that add warmth and character to the space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers the chance to own for less than the cost of rent. Conveniently located near local amenities while still offering a quiet neighborhood feel. Home is being sold in ''As Is'' condition. Don't miss your opportunity--schedule your personal showing today before this one is gone!

22. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $81,430 Sold
23. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $81,430 Sold
24. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $81,430
25. 2021-07-30
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
26. 2021-07-26
    historical Active Backup
27. 2021-07-14
    listed $78,000 Active
28. 2021-07-14
    listed $78,000 Active
29. 2021-07-14
    listed $78,000
30. 2021-07-01
    historical
31. 2021-07-01
    historical
32. 2021-06-30
    historical
33. 2021-05-19
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
34. 2021-05-19
    status Active Backup
35. 2021-05-18
    historical
36. 2021-05-18
    historical
37. 2021-04-17
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
38. 2021-04-17
    historical Active Backup
39. 2021-04-05
    listed $75,000
40. 2021-04-02
    listed $75,000 Active
41. 2021-04-02
    listed $75,000 Active
42. 2020-06-19
    status Pending
43. 2020-05-01
    historical
44. 2020-05-01
    historical
45. 2020-04-30
    historical
46. 2020-04-30
    historical
47. 2020-04-06
    historical Active Backup
48. 2020-03-23
    status Active
49. 2020-03-12
    historical
50. 2020-03-02
    historical Active Backup

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$791/yr (+$66/mo · 188.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$412
• After-tax cash flow: $957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625560
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,281
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5894
• State rank: #248 of 540 in MI

Livability — Niles

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #6422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,148
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,919 people
• By 2030: 48,320 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 44,230 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 39,852 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 31,440 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,914 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.5% · R 66.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+13.7 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.26%
• Current HPI: 195.8214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+241.8% since first listed

84 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $129,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $81,430 Public Records
• 2021-09-03 Sold (MLS) $81,430 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-09-03 Sold (MLS) $81,430 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-30 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-07-26 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $78,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $78,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-01 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-07-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-06-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-19 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-05-19 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-05-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-05-18 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-04-17 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2021-04-17 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-04-05 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-04-02 Listed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-04-02 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-19 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-05-01 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-05-01 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-04-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-04-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-04-06 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-03-23 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-03-12 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-03-02 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-02-12 Price Changed $72,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-12-16 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-12-12 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-12-11 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-10-30 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-10-11 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-10-05 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-09-24 Price Changed $79,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-09-08 Price Changed $84,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-06-19 Listed $72,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-19 Listed $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-06-19 Listed $72,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-04-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-04-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-03-28 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-03-28 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-03-08 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-01-22 Listed $89,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-01-22 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-01-22 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-01-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-01-02 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-01-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-10-06 Price Changed $89,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-09-15 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-15 Listed $92,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-09-15 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-09-26 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2007-07-20 Sold (MLS) $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-07-20 Sold (MLS) $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2007-04-13 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-04-13 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2004-12-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-09-25 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-09-25 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2003-10-21 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-21 Listed $44,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2003-01-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-07-08 Listed $81,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-07-08 Listed $81,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 1996-09-05 Sold (MLS) $45,500 REALCOMP
• 1996-09-05 Sold (MLS) $45,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 1996-07-04 Listed $46,900 REALCOMP
• 1996-07-04 Listed $46,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 1993-07-01 Sold (MLS) $37,000 REALCOMP
• 1993-07-01 Sold (MLS) $37,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1993-02-07 Listed $38,000 REALCOMP
• 1993-02-07 Listed $38,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · -59.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.