107 15th St Unit E-1

Garden City, NY 11530

$385,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,940/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $368k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#45 in NY, #695 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Garden City Union Free School District (suburban): math 89% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #16 of 590 in NY (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 1% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hemlock School (191 students, 0% FRL); Garden City Middle School (math 88% / reading 87%, grade A+, #8 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 928 students, 4% FRL); Garden City High School (math 100% / reading 82%, grade A+, #226 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,090 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.2% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.