107 15th St Unit E-1 · Garden City, NY 11530

$385,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Schools +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! Two-bedroom, one-bath first-floor corner unit in the desirable Cherry Valley Apartments, offering easy garden-style living in a sought-after Garden City location. Bright and well-positioned, with a scenic courtyard view, this unit presents a unique opportunity for a buyer to personalize and create a space to their own taste. Conveniently located near the train, hospital, shopping, and dining, with an approximate 40-minute commute to New York City. Garden City schools and a highly desirable community make this a rare chance to make this home your own.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1950
• Listed 17 days

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR CORNER UNIT
• SCENIC COURTYARD VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.2% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#45 in NY, #695 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Garden City Union Free School District (suburban): math 89% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #16 of 590 in NY (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 1% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hemlock School (191 students, 0% FRL); Garden City Middle School (math 88% / reading 87%, grade A+, #8 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 928 students, 4% FRL); Garden City High School (math 100% / reading 82%, grade A+, #226 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,090 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,803 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-46,727
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-20,371
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11530

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $385,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Mineola Blvd #1 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	443	$2,200	$4.97	24d	1	0.41mi
140 Old Country Rd Mineola, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$5,114	$5.61	1d	13	0.41mi
162 2nd St Unit 4 Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$3,600	$4.80	12d	1	0.46mi
1 3rd St Unit 1033 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,900	$5.57	43d	1	0.59mi
1 3rd St Unit 921 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,750	$5.36	43d	1	0.59mi
119 Searing Ave Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$5,135	$5.43	1d	13	0.63mi
203 Willis Ave Apt 3E Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,200	$3.38	43d	1	0.67mi
101 Clinton Ave Unit 1G Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	43d	1	0.69mi
133 Lincoln Ave Unit C Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	450	$3,000	$6.67	43d	1	0.71mi
269 Willis Ave Unit N Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	0.82mi
365 Stewart Ave Garden City, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$4,985	$4.82	1d	1	0.85mi
2 Laurel Dr Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	641	$3,495	$5.45	1d	15	1.14mi
8 Lafayette St Williston Park, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$2,200	$4.40	19d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   listed $385,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,531
• − Management: −$3,531
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$3,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garden City Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3611760
• Math proficiency: 89% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $147,057
• Composite: 82.35/100
• National rank: #33
• State rank: #16 of 590 in NY

Livability — Garden City

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #695

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden City, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 27,939
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,939
• Household income: $228,143
• Rent vs Own: 10.1% rent · 89.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -738.90%
• Current HPI: 274.0981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid