1530 Bob White Dr

Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$265,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-280/mo
• Annual: $-3,358/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.