1530 Bob White Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 2018 7,840 sqft lot $202/sqft · 12% below area Est $301k · 12% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

True turnkey with Texas Hill Country "Zero day start" Airbnb potential! Very well kept by the original owner, this home showcases an open floor plan with wood-look tile throughout and no carpet in sight. High vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light highlight the interior. The family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen with an island, creating a great space for entertaining. The primary suite offers a tray ceiling with views of the backyard while the secondary bedrooms are oversized so no space is wasted. All appliances are included. Enjoy a covered patio, mature trees, and a privately fenced yard complete with a storage shed. The home is conveniently located between Austin, San Antonio, New Braunfels, and Boerne. Schedule your tour today.

Key facts

• Tray ceiling
• Primary suite
• Kitchen island

Tags

• TEXAS HILL COUNTRY HOME
• CYPRESS COVE COMMUNITY
• WOOD APPEARING TILE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TRAY CEILING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,649 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,045
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -11.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Rockingshire	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-0%)	2mo	$309,900	$236	92
339 Granite	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-1%)	0mo	$239,999	$184	91
1637 Bob White Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+0%)	6mo	$260,000	$197	90
1302 Echo Mdw	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+1%)	3mo	$290,000	$218	83
1628 Rim Rock Cv	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-2%)	6mo	$260,000	$202	80
1956 Tanglewood	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-2%)	1mo	$269,990	$209	74
1407 Tanglewood Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-8%)	0mo	$279,900	$231	70
142 Granite Rd	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (+11%)	8mo	$309,500	$211	70
1301 Green Meadow Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+9%)	9mo	$349,000	$244	69
645 Jonquil	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+14%)	3mo	$354,994	$237	68
2421 Hornsby	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-2%)	5mo	$222,000	$172	66
574 Indian Scout	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	3mo	$349,900	$251	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,733
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-75,709
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $224,508

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1285 Live Oak Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	43d	1	0.25mi
1491 Winding Creek Trl Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,850	$1.43	43d	1	0.35mi
2071 Hornsby Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,595	$1.49	43d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active Option 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active Option 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $265,000 Active Option 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-04-25
    price $265,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    True turnkey with Texas Hill Country "Zero day start" Airbnb potential! Very well kept by the original owner, this home showcases an open floor plan with wood-look tile throughout and no carpet in sight. High vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light highlight the interior. The family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen with an island, creating a great space for entertaining. The primary suite offers a tray ceiling with views of the backyard while the secondary bedrooms are oversized so no space is wasted. All appliances are included. Enjoy a covered patio, mature trees, and a privately fenced yard complete with a storage shed. The home is conveniently located between Austin, San Antonio, New Braunfels, and Boerne. Schedule your tour today.

11. 2026-03-24
    listed $267,000 New 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    True turnkey with Texas Hill Country "Zero day start" Airbnb potential! Very well kept by the original owner, this home showcases an open floor plan with wood-look tile throughout and no carpet in sight. High vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light highlight the interior. The family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen with an island, creating a great space for entertaining. The primary suite offers a tray ceiling with views of the backyard while the secondary bedrooms are oversized so no space is wasted. All appliances are included. Enjoy a covered patio, mature trees, and a privately fenced yard complete with a storage shed. The home is conveniently located between Austin, San Antonio, New Braunfels, and Boerne. Schedule your tour today.

12. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus Sold
13. 2018-04-19
    status Pending
14. 2018-01-12
    listed $162,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,933
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+62.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $265,000 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Listed $267,000 LERA
• 2018-05-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-04-19 Pending — LERA
• 2018-01-12 Listed $162,900 LERA