21309 Gambill Ln

Keyesport, IL 62231

$75,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1996 · Other · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $480/mo
• Annual: $5,760/yr
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.43%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,306 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Carlyle CUSD 1 (town): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #351 of 620 in IL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.