21309 Gambill Ln · Keyesport, IL 62231

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Other · 75 Days on market

Built 1996 0.80 ac lot $42/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured mobile home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Ample cabinetry
• Solid foundation

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• DESIGNATED LAUNDRY AREA
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,306 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Carlyle CUSD 1 (town): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #351 of 620 in IL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.43%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,627
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -50.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $69,388
• Equity at exit: $65,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.56×
• Total profit: $179,827
• Equity at exit: $138,749

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62231

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $79,000 1341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

16. 2026-05-17
    price $79,000 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

17. 2026-05-08
    price $82,000 1341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

18. 2026-05-08
    price $82,000 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

19. 2026-04-30
    price $85,000 1341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

20. 2026-04-30
    price $85,000 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

21. 2026-04-20
    price $88,000 1341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

22. 2026-04-20
    price $88,000 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

23. 2026-04-04
    listed $90,000 Active 1341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

24. 2026-04-04
    listed $90,000 Active 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on approximately 0.80 acres just minutes from Carlyle Lake! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath Belmont model manufactured home offers approximately 1,792 square feet of living space, providing a larger-than-expected layout with multiple living areas and strong potential for improvement. The home features a generous living room with a fireplace, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a designated dining area. The primary bedroom includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for a variety of needs. A laundry/mud room adds convenience and extra storage potential. Major exterior improvements were completed in 2020, including a new roof, siding, and front and back doors-significantly reducing large future expenses for the next owner. The property is situated on a dead-end street, offering added privacy, with a field behind the home and close proximity to Carlyle Lake for outdoor recreation. While the home will require cleanout, cosmetic updates, and some finishing touches, it presents a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Property includes a shed and additional outdoor space. Being sold AS-IS. Cash or renovation financing recommended. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, utilities, and property details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $4,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlyle CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708460
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,003
• Composite: 21.18/100
• National rank: #8421
• State rank: #351 of 620 in IL

Livability — Keyesport

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1306
• US rank: #24800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,521

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,663 people
• By 2030: 37,194 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,566 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,950 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 26,403 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 19,267 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Current HPI: 207.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $79,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $79,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $82,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $82,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $88,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $88,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-15.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $18 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.