8807 Black Birch Ave

Zachary, LA 70791

$238,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,133/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $66,780

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zachary Community School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 98 in LA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 584 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Zachary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.