8807 Black Birch Ave · Zachary, LA 70791

$238,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Built 2017 6,969 sqft lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Loaded with Upgrades! This move-in ready home features an open, split floor plan designed for both comfort and convenience. From the moment you enter, you'll love the high ceilings in the foyer and the updated flooring that gives the living room a luxurious feel. The spacious layout is perfect for entertaining, with a large kitchen peninsula where friends and family can gather. The home is packed with premium features including 3cm full slab granite countertops in the bathrooms, beautiful birch cabinets, ceramic tile in all wet areas, a tankless water heater, and radiant barrier decking in the attic for energy efficiency. The master suite offers a relaxing retreat with a double-sink vanity, garden tub/shower combo, and a generous walk-in closet. The split design is ideal for families or hosting guests, providing privacy for all. Best of all, this home qualifies for 100% financing--no money down--and flood insurance is not required! Seller is offering a $1,800 carpet allowance.

Key facts

• Birch cabinets
• Updated flooring
• High ceilings

Tags

• OPEN SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE KITCHEN PENINSULA
• BIRCH CABINETS
• CERAMIC TILE IN ALL WET AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Zachary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zachary Community School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 98 in LA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 584 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,993 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,995
• List price: $238,500
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9188 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+1%)	6mo	$235,000	$161	83
8873 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	14mo	$230,000	$159	82
8824 Hackberry Ridge Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	23mo	$220,000	$152	78
9067 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-6%)	3mo	$222,500	$164	78
9302 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	8mo	$229,000	$158	77
8944 Cherry Laurel Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+4%)	12mo	$184,900	$122	75
9033 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-6%)	12mo	$220,000	$162	71
9255 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+11%)	4mo	$200,000	$124	64
9460 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+1%)	23mo	$224,000	$153	59
8941 Cherry Laurel Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,563 (+8%)	20mo	$211,005	$135	56
6708 Royal Oaks Ct	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	12mo	$235,000	$147	54
9508 Redwood Lake Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+11%)	13mo	$235,000	$146	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,434
• Equity at exit: $35,561

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,331
• Equity at exit: $20,621

Cash invested: $66,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 584
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,407/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $221,818

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,625
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9437 Redwood Lake Blvd Zachary, LA	3.0	2.0	1591	$2,100	$1.32	14d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,500 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,500 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,500 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,500 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,500 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,500 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,500 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,500 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,500 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,500 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,500 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,500 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,500 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,500 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,500 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    price $238,500 1024-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Loaded with Upgrades! This move-in ready home features an open, split floor plan designed for both comfort and convenience. From the moment you enter, you’ll love the high ceilings in the foyer and the updated flooring that gives the living room a luxurious feel. The spacious layout is perfect for entertaining, with a large kitchen peninsula where friends and family can gather. The home is packed with premium features including 3cm full slab granite countertops in the bathrooms, beautiful birch cabinets, ceramic tile in all wet areas, a tankless water heater, and radiant barrier decking in the attic for energy efficiency. The master suite offers a relaxing retreat with a double-sink vanity, garden tub/shower combo, and a generous walk-in closet. The split design is ideal for families or hosting guests, providing privacy for all. Best of all, this home qualifies for 100% financing—no money down—and flood insurance is not required! Seller is offering a $1,800 carpet allowance.

17. 2026-03-23
    price $238,500 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Loaded with Upgrades! This move-in ready home features an open, split floor plan designed for both comfort and convenience. From the moment you enter, you’ll love the high ceilings in the foyer and the updated flooring that gives the living room a luxurious feel. The spacious layout is perfect for entertaining, with a large kitchen peninsula where friends and family can gather. The home is packed with premium features including 3cm full slab granite countertops in the bathrooms, beautiful birch cabinets, ceramic tile in all wet areas, a tankless water heater, and radiant barrier decking in the attic for energy efficiency. The master suite offers a relaxing retreat with a double-sink vanity, garden tub/shower combo, and a generous walk-in closet. The split design is ideal for families or hosting guests, providing privacy for all. Best of all, this home qualifies for 100% financing—no money down—and flood insurance is not required! Seller is offering a $1,800 carpet allowance.

18. 2025-11-21
    listed $245,000 Active 1024-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Loaded with Upgrades! This move-in ready home features an open, split floor plan designed for both comfort and convenience. From the moment you enter, you’ll love the high ceilings in the foyer and the updated flooring that gives the living room a luxurious feel. The spacious layout is perfect for entertaining, with a large kitchen peninsula where friends and family can gather. The home is packed with premium features including 3cm full slab granite countertops in the bathrooms, beautiful birch cabinets, ceramic tile in all wet areas, a tankless water heater, and radiant barrier decking in the attic for energy efficiency. The master suite offers a relaxing retreat with a double-sink vanity, garden tub/shower combo, and a generous walk-in closet. The split design is ideal for families or hosting guests, providing privacy for all. Best of all, this home qualifies for 100% financing—no money down—and flood insurance is not required! Seller is offering a $1,800 carpet allowance.

19. 2025-11-21
    listed $245,000 Active 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home Loaded with Upgrades! This move-in ready home features an open, split floor plan designed for both comfort and convenience. From the moment you enter, you’ll love the high ceilings in the foyer and the updated flooring that gives the living room a luxurious feel. The spacious layout is perfect for entertaining, with a large kitchen peninsula where friends and family can gather. The home is packed with premium features including 3cm full slab granite countertops in the bathrooms, beautiful birch cabinets, ceramic tile in all wet areas, a tankless water heater, and radiant barrier decking in the attic for energy efficiency. The master suite offers a relaxing retreat with a double-sink vanity, garden tub/shower combo, and a generous walk-in closet. The split design is ideal for families or hosting guests, providing privacy for all. Best of all, this home qualifies for 100% financing—no money down—and flood insurance is not required! Seller is offering a $1,800 carpet allowance.

20. 2025-10-16
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2020-03-20
    soldstatus $182,000
22. 2020-03-19
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-03-02
    status Pending
24. 2019-12-09
    listed $188,000 Active
25. 2019-12-09
    listed $188,000
26. 2017-05-22
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2017-03-20
    status Pending
28. 2017-02-14
    listed $176,900 Active
29. 2017-02-14
    listed $176,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$2,407
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,938
• Taxable loss: −$5,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zachary Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2200039
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,531
• Composite: 46.99/100
• National rank: #2349
• State rank: #8 of 98 in LA

Livability — Zachary

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #8274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zachary, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 30,385
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $238,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $238,500 GBRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $245,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $235,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-19 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2020-03-02 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $188,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $188,000 GBRMLS
• 2017-05-22 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2017-03-20 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2017-02-14 Listed $176,900 GBRMLS
• 2017-02-14 Listed $176,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,407 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.