209 Mckinley Ln

Longview, TX 75604

$265,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 316 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,056/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-208/mo
• Annual: $-2,498/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Spring Hill ISD (urban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #77 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Pri (492 students, 50% FRL); Spring Hill J H (math 53% / reading 56%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 479 students, 46% FRL); Spring Hill H S (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 641 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?