209 Mckinley Ln · Longview, TX 75604

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 316 Days on market

Built 1966 1.46 ac lot $140/sqft · 15% below area Est $311k · 15% under ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• 1.46 acres
• Replaced hvac
• Large covered patio

Tags

• 1.46 ACRES
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• UPDATED PLUMBING TO PEX
• REPLACED ROOF
• REPLACED HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Spring Hill ISD (urban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #77 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Pri (492 students, 50% FRL); Spring Hill J H (math 53% / reading 56%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 479 students, 46% FRL); Spring Hill H S (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 641 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,594 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,107
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -14.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3922 Gable Crst	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (+10%)	7mo	$429,500	$207	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,612
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-52,880
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75604

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,987/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,319

Max offer price $228,233

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-133	+0% $-208	+5% $-283	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-289	+0% $-208	+5% $-127	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-141	base $-208	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Mia Ln Longview, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,600	$1.59	15d	1	0.27mi
3111 Gilmer Rd Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1915	$1,650	$0.86	45d	1	1.24mi
413 Woodway Ln Longview, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,100	$1.47	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 297 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 296 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 295 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 294 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $265,000 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

18. 2026-05-18
    price $272,000 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

19. 2026-02-06
    price $275,900 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

20. 2025-11-12
    price $299,000 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

21. 2025-09-02
    price $312,500 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

22. 2025-08-09
    listed $318,500 Active 1044-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1044 chars)

    Spring Hill Acreage + Immaculate Condition = A Rare Find! Welcome to this pristine, one-owner 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 1.46 gorgeous acres in Spring Hill ISD—a property where care and quality shine throughout. The open-concept living room features a cozy fireplace and flows perfectly into the kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Step outside to a large covered patio overlooking a spacious, peaceful yard, perfect for morning coffee, backyard gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Plenty of parking offers great flexibility. A storage building with electricity offers extra space for a workshop, home office, or she-shed/man cave. With updated PEX plumbing, a replaced roof, and updated HVAC, this home offers both charm and confidence. An added bonus include refrigerator, washer and dryer stay for the new owner! Homes like this—well-maintained, on acreage, and in Spring Hill—don’t come along often. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

23. 1998-03-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,987 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$863/yr (+$72/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,987
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841190
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,314
• Composite: 50.15/100
• National rank: #1901
• State rank: #77 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longview, TX
• County: Gregg County · 128,826 people
• City population: 103,792
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,924
• Household income: $67,942
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 996.0

Population outlook (Gregg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,947 people
• By 2030: 126,542 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 127,311 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 127,289 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 124,954 · -0.8%
• By 2100: 113,737 · -9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gregg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.5% · R 70.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.6pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+36.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+37.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.02%
• Current HPI: 237.5586
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $265,000 LAAR
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $272,000 LAAR
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $275,900 LAAR
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $299,000 LAAR
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $312,500 LAAR
• 2025-08-09 Listed $318,500 LAAR
• 1998-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,987 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.