3216 Tenerife Rd

Catlett, VA 20119

$185,000C

2 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $254/mo
• Annual: $3,047/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (4.6% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $621 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-658 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#545 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fauquier County Public School District (rural): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #43 of 131 in VA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 286 units permitted in Fauquier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fauquier County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $185k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.