3216 Tenerife Rd · Catlett, VA 20119

$185,000

2 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1944

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * JUNE 12, 2023 - SPECIAL COMMISSIONER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER AND WILL PRESENT TO THE JUDGE FOR EXECUTION ON JUNE 23, 2023 * * * Small uninhabitable house on property. Do not attempt to go in house. Acreage is estimated. Public sewer tap available for purchase by buyer.

Key facts

• Built 1944
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#545 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fauquier County Public School District (rural): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #43 of 131 in VA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 286 units permitted in Fauquier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $621 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-658 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Fauquier County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $185k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,487 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,631
• Equity at exit: $50,452

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $48,088
• Equity at exit: $58,098

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20119

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $185,000 Active
15. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $40,000
16. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    * * * JUNE 12, 2023 - SPECIAL COMMISSIONER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER AND WILL PRESENT TO THE JUDGE FOR EXECUTION ON JUNE 23, 2023 * * * Small uninhabitable house on property. Do not attempt to go in house. Acreage is estimated. Public sewer tap available for purchase by buyer.

17. 2023-07-27
    status Pending 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    * * * JUNE 12, 2023 - SPECIAL COMMISSIONER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER AND WILL PRESENT TO THE JUDGE FOR EXECUTION ON JUNE 23, 2023 * * * Small uninhabitable house on property. Do not attempt to go in house. Acreage is estimated. Public sewer tap available for purchase by buyer.

18. 2023-06-14
    historical Active Under Contract 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    * * * JUNE 12, 2023 - SPECIAL COMMISSIONER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER AND WILL PRESENT TO THE JUDGE FOR EXECUTION ON JUNE 23, 2023 * * * Small uninhabitable house on property. Do not attempt to go in house. Acreage is estimated. Public sewer tap available for purchase by buyer.

19. 2023-05-23
    listed $80,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    * * * JUNE 12, 2023 - SPECIAL COMMISSIONER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER AND WILL PRESENT TO THE JUDGE FOR EXECUTION ON JUNE 23, 2023 * * * Small uninhabitable house on property. Do not attempt to go in house. Acreage is estimated. Public sewer tap available for purchase by buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$400/yr (+$33/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1
• After-tax cash flow: $3,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fauquier County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101320
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $88,584
• Composite: 54.28/100
• National rank: #1371
• State rank: #43 of 131 in VA

Livability — Catlett

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #25341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catlett, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,543

Population outlook (Fauquier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,321 people
• By 2030: 78,231 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 82,994 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 85,798 · +13.9%
• By 2075: 93,457 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 91,991 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Scottish 5% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fauquier

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.6% · R 60.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Current HPI: 323.0052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+131.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $185,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-23 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,117 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.