222 Roby Ln Unit CA

Wofford Heights, CA 93285

$69,500A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $307/mo
• Annual: $3,686/yr
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.94%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $19,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($997 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($481 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,317 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Wofford Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major: systems — No visible systems, but the independent image suggests potential wear