222 Roby Ln Unit CA · Wofford Heights, CA 93285

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 173 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot $77/sqft · 38% below area Est $113k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Here is a great, singlewide mobile with an addition that virtually double the square footage. It sits on a beautiful lot, with a nice lake view. This home does need some repairs and updating but nothing major it is being sold AS-IS, the seller will be doing no repairs. Just imagine sitting on a lounge chair, drinking a cup of coffee and watching the sun shining off the lake. The mobile has one bedroom and a bath. The addition has the living room and a second room that could be a bedroom. Come take a look and see the possibilities.

Key facts

• Addition
• Lake view
• Beautiful lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• BEAUTIFUL LOT
• ADDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($997 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Wofford Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,317 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($481 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.94%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,825
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -38.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Patricia Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	7mo	$57,500	$60	69
35 E Evans Rd #56	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	2mo	$39,000	$39	46
1040 Evans Rd Unit B2	0.66mi	2/1.0	840 (-7%)	21mo	$28,500	$34	41
168 Merrill Rd	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	776 (-14%)	9mo	$92,500	$119	37
1042 Evans Rd #2	0.74mi	2/1.0	992 (+10%)	16mo	$46,900	$47	35
108 Pinewood Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	18mo	$50,000	$63	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $57,429
• Equity at exit: $62,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $153,765
• Equity at exit: $135,023

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93285

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,500 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 155 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    listed $74,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$957
• − Management: −$957
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $2,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$658
• After-tax cash flow: $3,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This singlewide mobile home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, including painting and landscaping. While it has a large addition, the overall condition is fair and could be improved with moderate renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major flooring — No visible flooring, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but the independent image suggests potential wear
• Major systems — No visible systems, but the independent image suggests potential wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but the independent image suggests potential wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring, but the independent image suggests potential wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior, but the independent image suggests potential wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems, but the independent image suggests potential wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Wofford Heights

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1317
• US rank: #26674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wofford Heights, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,415

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 264.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $74,000 SSMLS