25009 Peacock Ln Unit 1-201

Goodland, FL 34114

$249,999C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$843
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-307/yr
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-307/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#893 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,391/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?