193 Skyline Loop

Oxford, AL 36260

$168,543D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,275/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $47,192

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in AL, #3,446 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Oxford City (urban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #22 of 129 in AL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.