116 8th Ave

Dover Beaches North, NJ 08739

$3,190,000D-

7 bd · 6.0 ba · 3,939 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,729
• Tax + insurance: −$3,450
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,347
• Net cashflow: $-7,630/mo
• Annual: $-91,562/yr
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.09%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $893,200

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $3.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-92k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.84M (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.59M (50.0% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.09M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.59M (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $180k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $158k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#534 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brick Township Public School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #330 of 472 in NJ (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$288k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.5% in Dover Beaches North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.