2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,276 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,189/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$670
HOA
−$745
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,090
Net cashflow
$592/mo
Annual
$7,102/yr
Cap rate
9.36%
Cash-on-cash
10.94%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $393k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $399k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $5,189/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RBHDTX0C7WHS2B
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29