504 Mission Ave

Kenai, AK 99611

$140,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $731/mo
• Annual: $8,770/yr
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.37%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#38 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt. View Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 403 students, 51% FRL); Kenai Middle School (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #19 of 36 statewide, top 51%, 411 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.7% in Kenai — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.