504 Mission Ave · Kenai, AK 99611

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1985 0.26 ac lot Est $260k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Old Town Kenai. This home is awaiting you time and talent to give it a full update.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential; Detached property; Built in 1985
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: In city limits; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Bedroom and bathroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.7% in Kenai — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#38 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt. View Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 403 students, 51% FRL); Kenai Middle School (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #19 of 36 statewide, top 51%, 411 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.37%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,844
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Birch St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	20mo	$265,000	$263	58
313 Cindy Cir	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+10%)	2mo	$309,500	$283	46
1114 First Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+12%)	21mo	$249,000	$226	44
1526 Stellar Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+10%)	17mo	$259,900	$238	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,819
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $80,506
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 McKinley St Unit 4 Kenai, AK	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,000	$1.78	43d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 94-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 72.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $6,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $7,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Kenai

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #14592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenai, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2009-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.