8100 Poinciana Blvd #2312

Hunters Creek, FL 32821

$165,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$810
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-242/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-242/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $490 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in FL, #3,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Hunters Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.