54 Carriage Hill Rd

Lake George, NY 12824

$495,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,502 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$780
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $-749/mo
• Annual: $-8,988/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (32.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $336k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.