54 Carriage Hill Rd · Lake George, NY 12824

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1985 2.52 ac lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

WE CURRENTLY HAVE MULTIPLE OFFERS AND THE OWNERS HAVE ASKED FOR HIGHEST AND BEST OFFERS TO BE SUBMITTED BY MONDAY 6/8/2026 AT NOON Thank you! Welcome to 54 Carriage Hill Road, Diamond Point! Nestled in the established Carriage Hills Subdivision between Lake George Village and Bolton Landing, this contemporary home offers a rare opportunity to create your ideal Adirondack retreat. Residents enjoy deeded lake access through the Carriage Hills Beach Club on beautiful Lake George, famously known as the ''Queen of American Lakes. '' Set on a private 2.52-acre wooded lot at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, the home features an open and inviting floor plan highlighted by a stunning wood-burning

Key facts

• Private wooded lot
• Wraparound deck
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• WOOD-BURNING STONE FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association with annual fee of $300; Association provides beach and lake access; fee includes insurance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two garage spaces; Paved parking with garage door opener
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Septic tank; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Shingle/composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab; Finished walk-out basement with exterior and interior entry; full, heated
• Exterior features: Wrap-around porch and deck; Paved driveway; Shed(s); Secluded, private and wooded lot with sloped and irregular terrain; Deeded water access to Lake George

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms located on second, third and basement levels (primary bedroom on third level)
• Flooring: Combination of wood, tile, ceramic tile, laminate, carpet and linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom; Full baths located on first and second levels; half bath on first level; primary bath on third level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with baseboard and forced air systems; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Ceiling fans; Vaulted and cathedral ceilings; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Mudroom adjacent to laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $335,727 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $221,922
• Equity at exit: $445,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $691,117
• Equity at exit: $961,676

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12824

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,890/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,305

Max offer price $362,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-469	-5% $-609	+0% $-749	+5% $-889	+10% $-1,029
Rent	-10% $-1,014	-5% $-882	+0% $-749	+5% $-616	+10% $-484
Rate	-1.0pp $-500	-0.5pp $-623	base $-749	+0.5pp $-877	+1.0pp $-1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $495,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $495,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-01
   listed $495,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,890 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,628 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$61/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$6,890
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$17,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,308
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,022

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 6% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.29%
• Current HPI: 541.3635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $495,000 Global MLS
• 2006-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2000-05-09 Listed $225,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,890 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.