4187 Burningtree Rd

Radisson, NY 13090

$255,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $198/mo
• Annual: $2,380/yr
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Soule Road Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 316 students, 41% FRL); Soule Road Middle School (math 32% / reading 53%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 38% FRL); Liverpool High School (math 94% / reading 54%, grade B+, #658 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,124 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $255k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Radisson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.