362 Long Branch Rd

Lakeland, NY 13209

$149,500B-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,224 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,718/yr
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.05%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#219 in NY, #3,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Solvay Union Free School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #550 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Solvay Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 446 students, 65% FRL); Solvay Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 438 students, 70% FRL); Solvay High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 458 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 46% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.