362 Long Branch Rd · Lakeland, NY 13209

$149,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1930 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#219 in NY, #3,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Solvay Union Free School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #550 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Solvay Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 446 students, 65% FRL); Solvay Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 438 students, 70% FRL); Solvay High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 458 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 46% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,257 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.05%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,518
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $56,290
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13209

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,273/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $645	-5% $602	+0% $560	+5% $518	+10% $475
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $476	+0% $560	+5% $644	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $598	base $560	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-25
   listed $149,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,273 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,273 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,273
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $4,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $5,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Solvay Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627150
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,163
• Composite: 31.28/100
• National rank: #6018
• State rank: #550 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #3457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 12,995
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,714
• Household income: $68,138
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Subsaharan African 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.23%
• Current HPI: 326.7671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $149,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,273 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.