5 Circle Ave

North Creek, NY 12853

$388,000C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,950 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $34,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax + insurance: −$647
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,308
• Net cashflow: $24,811/mo
• Annual: $297,727/yr
• Cap rate: 83.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 274.05%
• DSCR: 13.19
• 1% rule: 8.97%
• Cash to close: $108,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25k ($298k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $388k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $382k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 83.0% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.