5 Circle Ave · North Creek, NY 12853

$388,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1940 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Immaculately kept home, move in condition. Ideal for a primary residence or second home or rental income property. Located walking distance to downtown North Creek and only 1 mile from Gore Mountain Ski Area.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Heated garage; Driveway; Total parking for 8 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; Basement with exterior and interior entry, full and unfinished
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Slate roof; Built with living area approximately 1,950
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Garden; Other structures: garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Three additional bedrooms on second floor
• Flooring: Wood; Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on second floor; One half bathroom on first floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Crown molding; Wood burning stove; Screens, blinds, and double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $388k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25k ($298k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $388k).
• Recommended offer: $382k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 83.0% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $382,180 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 83.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 274.05%
• DSCR: 13.19
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,450
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Ordway Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0	1,900 (-3%)	12mo	$245,000	$129	73
25 Fairview Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+1%)	15mo	$300,002	$152	72
23 Marion Ave	0.33mi	4/1.5	1,788 (-8%)	4mo	$235,000	$131	68
8 Byrd Pond Rd	0.31mi	4/1.0	1,883 (-3%)	20mo	$83,000	$44	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.50×
• Total profit: $1,792,042
• Equity at exit: $349,541

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 38.15×
• Total profit: $4,035,652
• Equity at exit: $753,799

Cash invested: $108,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $34,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,820/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,308
• Net cashflow: $24,811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,394

Max offer price $388,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25,079	-5% $24,945	+0% $24,811	+5% $24,677	+10% $24,542
Rent	-10% $22,061	-5% $23,436	+0% $24,811	+5% $26,185	+10% $27,560
Rate	-1.0pp $25,006	-0.5pp $24,909	base $24,811	+0.5pp $24,710	+1.0pp $24,608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,000
• Closing costs: $11,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Ordway Ln North Creek, NY	4.0	3.0	1900	$34,800	$18.32	44d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $388,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $388,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $388,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $388,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $388,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $388,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $388,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $388,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $388,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $388,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $388,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $388,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $388,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $388,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $388,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $388,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $417,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,734
• − Property taxes: −$5,820
• − Insurance: −$1,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$33,408
• − Management: −$33,408
• − Depreciation: −$11,287
• Taxable income: $310,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74,401
• After-tax cash flow: $223,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Creek, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $388,000 Global MLS