11265 16th St NE

St. Michael, MN 55376

$289,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,945 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$295
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-374/mo
• Annual: $-4,491/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.53%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.