11265 16th St NE · St. Michael, MN 55376

$289,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2005 1,481 sqft lot $149/sqft · 29% below area Est $429k · 32% under $295/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Two bedrooms, spacious loft, laundry and bathroom in the upper level. Finished lower level with 3rd bedroom, bonus family room and plumbed for your 3rd 3/4 bath. Could accommodate a 30 day close. Located on a cul-de-sac. Close proximity to the community park that features Tennis and Basketball Court in addition to the Playground. Don't miss out on this one. Make this house your home!

Key facts

• Multi-level townhome
• Modern kitchen
• $295 HOA

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL TOWNHOME
• BRIGHT AND INVITING LAYOUT
• SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CRISP WHITE CABINETRY
• MARBLED TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gassen HOA Management; Monthly HOA fee of $295 covering hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; Attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation; Built with a 978 sq ft foundation area
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two on upper level, one on lower level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining room layout; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $223,783 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.53%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,142
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -32.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-70,682
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-91,708
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55376

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,714/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$295
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $223,783

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11321 16th St NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	3.0	1505	$2,000	$1.33	1d	1	0.07mi
2948 Kepler Ave NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,800	$1.17	1d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $295 · $3,540/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $289,900 Active 811-char remark
16. 2020-09-01
    soldstatus $199,000 Sold 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Two bedrooms, spacious loft, laundry and bathroom in the upper level. Finished lower level with 3rd bedroom, bonus family room and plumbed for your 3rd 3/4 bath. Could accommodate a 30 day close. Located on a cul-de-sac. Close proximity to the community park that features Tennis and Basketball Court in addition to the Playground. Don't miss out on this one. Make this house your home!

17. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus $199,000
18. 2020-07-29
    historical Contingent - Inspection 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Two bedrooms, spacious loft, laundry and bathroom in the upper level. Finished lower level with 3rd bedroom, bonus family room and plumbed for your 3rd 3/4 bath. Could accommodate a 30 day close. Located on a cul-de-sac. Close proximity to the community park that features Tennis and Basketball Court in addition to the Playground. Don't miss out on this one. Make this house your home!

19. 2020-07-24
    listed $199,000 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Two bedrooms, spacious loft, laundry and bathroom in the upper level. Finished lower level with 3rd bedroom, bonus family room and plumbed for your 3rd 3/4 bath. Could accommodate a 30 day close. Located on a cul-de-sac. Close proximity to the community park that features Tennis and Basketball Court in addition to the Playground. Don't miss out on this one. Make this house your home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,714
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − HOA: −$3,540
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 19,317
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,106
• Household income: $131,266
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.03%
• Current HPI: 229.5977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+45.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-01 Sold (MLS) $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-24 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,714 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.