The Palomino Plan

Vine Grove, KY 40175

$219,900B-

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $999/mo
• Annual: $11,986/yr
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.47%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $499/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.