The Palomino Plan · Vine Grove, KY 40175

$219,900

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · MultiFamily · 142 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Palomino is a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom cape cod style duplex. The 1,500 square feet of living space means you have a large open great room and still have plenty of space in each of the bedrooms. Main Features All Brick 3 Bedrooms 2 Bathrooms Granite Counter Tops Stainless Steel Appliances Vinyl Surface Flooring in Main Living Areas Carpet in Bedrooms

Key facts

• All brick
• Carpet in bedrooms
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• ALL BRICK
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL SURFACE FLOORING
• CARPET IN BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Vine Grove, KY 40175 (The Palomino Plan at 200 Dixon Cir)
• Financial info: List price reported as $219,900
• HOA & community: HOA information not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Electric service (implied by heating); Central AC
• Home design: New construction plan: The Palomino; Single-family residence (plan-based)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,400 (reported); Construction year not specified
• Exterior features: Other-style roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (The Palomino plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry location and appliances not specified

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $499/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.47%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $28,032
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $106,521
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40175

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,151	-5% $1,075	+0% $999	+5% $923	+10% $847
Rent	-10% $747	-5% $873	+0% $999	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,251
Rate	-1.0pp $1,110	-0.5pp $1,055	base $999	+0.5pp $942	+1.0pp $884

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,188
Total (2 units)			$3,188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,060
• − Management: −$3,060
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $9,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $9,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Vine Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #5837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vine Grove, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.55%
• Current HPI: 246.3715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B