3513 San Fernando

Frazier Park, CA 93225

$250,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,553/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frazier Park Elementary (244 students, 76% FRL); El Tejon Elementary (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 189 students, 87% FRL); Frazier Mountain High (math 15% / reading 64%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $250k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.