3513 San Fernando · Frazier Park, CA 93225

$250,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1987 0.33 ac lot $156/sqft · 28% below area Est $349k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frazier Park Elementary (244 students, 76% FRL); El Tejon Elementary (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 189 students, 87% FRL); Frazier Mountain High (math 15% / reading 64%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $250k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,774 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,726
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -28.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
736 San Emidio	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-9%)	3mo	$345,000	$238	72
3513 Dakota	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-0%)	2mo	$365,000	$228	65
3417 Los Padres	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-14%)	10mo	$270,000	$195	57
4120 Willow Trl	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,640 (+2%)	9mo	$230,000	$140	56
3505 California Trl	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,592 (-0%)	13mo	$295,000	$185	52
410 Pine Canyon Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,533 (-4%)	7mo	$285,000	$186	49
3437 Illinois	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+5%)	18mo	$398,000	$237	46
4225 Alcot Trl	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,517 (-5%)	1mo	$329,000	$217	43
716 Avalon Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-14%)	15mo	$270,000	$196	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,816
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,376
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,993/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,002

Max offer price $227,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-59	+0% $-129	+5% $-200	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-202	+0% $-129	+5% $-57	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-66	base $-129	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
921 Center Way Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	45d	1	0.17mi
728 Catalina Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,750	$1.29	19d	1	0.22mi
4108 Roosevelt Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1470	$2,500	$1.70	5d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    status Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

18. 2026-02-19
    historical Active Under Contract 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

19. 2025-11-23
    status Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

20. 2025-11-09
    status Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

21. 2025-10-28
    listed $250,000 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This is a diamond in the ruff. This 3+2 has so much potential. Fix it up for your family or sell it. The upper level has a fantastic view.

22. 2001-01-10
    soldstatus $115,500
23. 1987-03-27
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 11 d/yr ≥88°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,993
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $-114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Frazier Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #25253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frazier Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-11-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2001-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records
• 1987-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,993 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.