1006 Burger Hollow Rd

Effort, PA 18058

$324,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,172 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$524
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-612/mo
• Annual: $-7,345/yr
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $90,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (37.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Valley El Sch (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #809 of 1,518 statewide, top 54%, 899 students, 50% FRL); Pleasant Valley Ms (math 19% / reading 58%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 950 students, 50% FRL); Pleasant Valley Hs (math 72% / reading 30%, grade D+, #123 of 437 statewide, top 28%, 1,343 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $251k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.