7107 Capricorn Way

San Antonio, TX 78109

$209,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,784/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,343/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: James L Masters (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 802 students, 66% FRL); Henry Metzger Middle (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 953 students, 90% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.