7107 Capricorn Way · San Antonio, TX 78109

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2017 6,534 sqft lot $126/sqft · 22% below area Est $268k · 22% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem in the premier Horizon Pointe subdivision. Featuring a bright and airy open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area, while the private primary suite offers a serene escape. Enjoy the incredible community amenities, including a resort-style pool, basketball courts, and multiple playgrounds. Located just a stone's throw from Masters Elementary and minutes from Randolph AFB and major highways, this home offers the ultimate in convenience and comfort. No city taxes and a low HOA make this an unbeatable value in Converse. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Multiple playgrounds
• Community amenities
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• MULTIPLE PLAYGROUNDS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: James L Masters (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 802 students, 66% FRL); Henry Metzger Middle (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 953 students, 90% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 57% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,412 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,478
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -21.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3019 Pacific Coast	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-1%)	1mo	$245,000	$148	82
2719 Pismo Bch	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+8%)	6mo	$259,900	$145	80
7231 Lunar Eclipse	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+6%)	2mo	$284,900	$162	71
7235 Lunar Eclipse	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,751 (+5%)	3mo	$278,000	$159	71
2615 Wolf Moon	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+13%)	2mo	$340,000	$180	70
7110 Pisces	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-3%)	9mo	$275,000	$171	68
7510 Josephs Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	3mo	$209,900	$126	65
7118 Azure Waters	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-14%)	4mo	$225,000	$157	57
6818 Lucky Flds	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+3%)	9mo	$239,999	$141	55
3017 Neptunes Sea	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,459 (-12%)	2mo	$234,995	$161	54
3448 Meteor Night	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-14%)	5mo	$312,990	$219	50
3404 Taurus Sky	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (+14%)	2mo	$260,000	$137	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-51,554
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-80,617
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1207
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,567/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $175,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-136	+0% $-195	+5% $-255	+10% $-314
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-266	+0% $-195	+5% $-125	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-142	base $-195	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7022 Phoenix Path Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	18d	1	0.21mi
2411 Woodlake Pkwy Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,504	$1.39	3d	18	0.23mi
3123 Saturn Path Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,975	$1.02	6d	1	0.27mi
6926 Opal Clfs Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,525	$1.20	6d	1	0.28mi
6926 Opal Clfs Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,550	$1.22	19d	1	0.28mi
7163 Lunar Eclipse Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,200	$1.14	12d	1	0.30mi
3023 Laguna Clfs Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,650	$1.23	5d	1	0.36mi
2715 Point Sur Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$1,785	$0.87	6d	1	0.37mi
7111 Azure Waters Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$1,800	$1.09	16d	1	0.41mi
2409 Key Hole Vw Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,600	$1.00	14d	1	0.48mi
3619 Storm Moon Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	0.58mi
6634 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1990	$1,750	$0.88	23d	1	0.61mi
6634 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1990	$1,750	$0.88	45d	1	0.61mi
6615 Port Elizabeth Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,489	$0.93	6d	1	0.62mi
6703 Foster Flds Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1894	$1,850	$0.98	16d	1	0.68mi
6941 Sunspot Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,240	$0.92	14d	1	0.69mi
3907 Josephs Run Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$1,719	$0.80	18d	1	0.71mi
3422 Dunlap Flds Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,540	$1.06	22d	1	0.72mi
3907 Josephs Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$1,719	$0.80	16d	1	0.73mi
3814 Pickles Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	45d	1	0.73mi
3711 Colemans Run Converse, TX	3.0	2.0–2.5	1380	$1,552	$1.12	4d	1	0.74mi
6503 Davenport Bay Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,786	$1.20	0d	1	0.75mi
2338 Camberly Vw Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	2122	$1,850	$0.87	25d	1	0.75mi
3511 Dunlap Flds Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,650	$1.25	12d	1	0.77mi
6510 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,539	$1.09	4d	1	0.77mi
6527 San Miguel Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	2042	$1,475	$0.72	45d	1	0.77mi
6458 Candleview Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2008	$1,645	$0.82	6d	1	0.82mi
3603 Aranda Flds Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,650	$1.23	45d	1	0.82mi
7516 Rose Robin Run Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,599	$0.99	6d	1	0.84mi
7528 Rose Robin Run Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,575	$0.95	6d	1	0.86mi
2610 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$1,995	$1.00	12d	1	0.86mi
2631 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1918	$1,689	$0.88	25d	1	0.89mi
3327 Candlemoon Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,550	$1.15	45d	1	0.91mi
6402 Candlewick Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2008	$1,790	$0.89	6d	1	0.92mi
6402 Candleview Ct San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,499	$1.14	6d	1	0.92mi
2607 Bluff Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2241	$1,650	$0.74	6d	1	0.95mi
6734 Summer Fest Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,550	$1.27	3d	8	0.95mi
6523 Candlecrest Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$1,930	$1.01	45d	1	0.97mi
6734 Summer Fest Dr Unit 130 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	25d	1	0.97mi
6734 Summer Fest Dr Unit 108 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,450	$1.18	46d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $209,900 Pending 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,900 Active Option 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active Option 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active Option 101 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active Option 100 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   price $219,900 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem in the premier Horizon Pointe subdivision. Featuring a bright and airy open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area, while the private primary suite offers a serene escape. Enjoy the incredible community amenities, including a resort-style pool, basketball courts, and multiple playgrounds. Located just a stone's throw from Masters Elementary and minutes from Randolph AFB and major highways, this home offers the ultimate in convenience and comfort. No city taxes and a low HOA make this an unbeatable value in Converse. Schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-04-18
   price $229,900 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem in the premier Horizon Pointe subdivision. Featuring a bright and airy open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area, while the private primary suite offers a serene escape. Enjoy the incredible community amenities, including a resort-style pool, basketball courts, and multiple playgrounds. Located just a stone's throw from Masters Elementary and minutes from Randolph AFB and major highways, this home offers the ultimate in convenience and comfort. No city taxes and a low HOA make this an unbeatable value in Converse. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2026-03-27
   price $234,900 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem in the premier Horizon Pointe subdivision. Featuring a bright and airy open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area, while the private primary suite offers a serene escape. Enjoy the incredible community amenities, including a resort-style pool, basketball courts, and multiple playgrounds. Located just a stone's throw from Masters Elementary and minutes from Randolph AFB and major highways, this home offers the ultimate in convenience and comfort. No city taxes and a low HOA make this an unbeatable value in Converse. Schedule your showing today!

9. 2026-02-20
   listed $244,900 New 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem in the premier Horizon Pointe subdivision. Featuring a bright and airy open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen flows effortlessly into the living area, while the private primary suite offers a serene escape. Enjoy the incredible community amenities, including a resort-style pool, basketball courts, and multiple playgrounds. Located just a stone's throw from Masters Elementary and minutes from Randolph AFB and major highways, this home offers the ultimate in convenience and comfort. No city taxes and a low HOA make this an unbeatable value in Converse. Schedule your showing today!

10. 2024-12-08
    historical $1,499
11. 2024-11-22
    price $1,549
12. 2024-11-01
    price $1,599
13. 2024-10-25
    price $1,645
14. 2024-10-15
    listed $1,685
15. 2022-07-13
    price $1,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,567 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,567 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,567
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13227.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,900 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $229,900 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $234,900 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Listed $244,900 LERA
• 2024-12-08 Rental Removed $1,499 RENT.
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $1,549 RENT.
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $1,599 RENT.
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $1,645 RENT.
• 2024-10-15 Listed for Rent $1,685 RENT.
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $1,650 RENT.

Property tax history

+33.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,567 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.