15863 Belden St

Detroit, MI 48238

$21,200C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$111
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $846/mo
• Annual: $10,151/yr
• Cap rate: 54.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 171.00%
• DSCR: 8.61
• 1% rule: 6.09%
• Cash to close: $5,936

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $21k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $21k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $147 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $636 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 54.2% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,291/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.