15863 Belden St · Detroit, MI 48238

$21,200

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1926 3,049 sqft lot Est $37k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroo m bungalow is a cutie but needs work. Could be your next rental or fixer upper flip? See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and other construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms and living areas combined)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $21k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $21k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.2% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,291/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $147 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $636 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $20,882 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 171.00%
• DSCR: 8.61
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15863 Belden St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$18,600	$16	99
15904 Parkside St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,204 (+4%)	2mo	$140,000	$116	79
15455 Wildemere St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,095 (-5%)	2mo	$18,500	$17	77
15840 Lawton St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+2%)	7mo	$38,000	$32	76
15021 Petoskey Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,177 (+2%)	1mo	$28,000	$24	69
16820 Santa Rosa Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+6%)	0mo	$10,000	$8	64
7447 Ellsworth St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+0%)	5mo	$35,500	$31	61
15853 Santa Rosa Dr	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (-9%)	2mo	$140,000	$133	61
15560 La Salle Blvd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,022 (-12%)	1mo	$35,000	$34	52
16665 San Juan Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-5%)	5mo	$40,000	$36	51
14752 Petoskey Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,029 (-11%)	0mo	$40,000	$39	45
16659 Lilac St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.21×
• Total profit: $54,682
• Equity at exit: $3,161

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.83×
• Total profit: $135,548
• Equity at exit: $1,833

Cash invested: $5,936 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$111
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $220

Max offer price $21,200

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $858	-5% $852	+0% $846	+5% $840	+10% $834
Rent	-10% $744	-5% $795	+0% $846	+5% $897	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $857	-0.5pp $851	base $846	+0.5pp $840	+1.0pp $835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,300
• Closing costs: $636
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	17d	1	0.28mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	44d	1	0.41mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	19d	1	0.41mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	44d	1	0.44mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	18d	1	0.46mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.47mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	18d	1	0.61mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	44d	1	0.67mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	0.71mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	18d	1	0.72mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	0.74mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	17d	1	0.75mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.75mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.79mi
16927 Inverness St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	897	$1,650	$1.84	17d	1	0.84mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	25d	1	0.89mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	44d	1	0.95mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	44d	1	0.98mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	25d	1	0.98mi
2034 Ewald Cir Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	5d	1	1.00mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.04mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	5d	1	1.07mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	1.08mi
326 Eason St Highland Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,300	$1.04	18d	1	1.10mi
14656 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	18d	1	1.10mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	5d	1	1.11mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	18d	1	1.12mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	25d	1	1.13mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	20d	1	1.13mi
15878 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	1.16mi
2433 Pasadena St Unit 2435 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	44d	1	1.17mi
15839 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	1.18mi
17449 Manderson Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	1.23mi
941 Merton Rd Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.23mi
13639 La Salle Blvd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	11d	1	1.23mi
14550 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	17d	1	1.24mi
3812 W Grand St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,025	$0.93	17d	1	1.26mi
14570 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	13d	1	1.27mi
17765 Manderson Rd Unit 14 Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	44d	1	1.29mi
17765 Manderson Rd Unit 8 Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	2d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This 3 bedroo m bungalow is a cutie but needs work. Could be your next rental or fixer upper flip? See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This 3 bedroo m bungalow is a cutie but needs work. Could be your next rental or fixer upper flip? See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $21,200 Active

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This 3 bedroo m bungalow is a cutie but needs work. Could be your next rental or fixer upper flip? See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $21,200 Active 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This 3 bedroo m bungalow is a cutie but needs work. Could be your next rental or fixer upper flip? See it today. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold “AS-IS” without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,188
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$106
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$617
• Taxable income: $10,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,509
• After-tax cash flow: $7,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $21,200 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $21,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · -37.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.