6448 Patterson Rd

Liberty, NC 27349

$144,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $167/mo
• Annual: $1,999/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($996 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#56 in NC, #4,472 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $144k implies a 515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.