6448 Patterson Rd · Liberty, NC 27349

$144,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1997 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double Wide On Over An Acre. Hvac Is Missing. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath. As-Is.

Key facts

• Front entry
• Open space
• Brick steps

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• FRONT ENTRY
• BRICK STEPS
• SIDE WOOD DECK
• OPEN SPACE
• SURROUNDING TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric water heater; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: 1.16 acre lot; Well water; Septic tank; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#56 in NC, #4,472 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($996 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $144k implies a 515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,086 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $88,971
• Equity at exit: $129,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $253,539
• Equity at exit: $279,760

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27349

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $552/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   price $144,000
2. 2026-03-17
   price $149,000
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $159,000 Active
4. 2013-02-01
   soldstatus $23,401 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Double Wide On Over An Acre. Hvac Is Missing. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath. As-Is.

5. 2013-02-01
   soldstatus $23,401 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Double Wide On Over An Acre. Hvac Is Missing. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath. As-Is.

6. 2012-12-31
   historical
7. 2012-11-14
   listed $24,900 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Double Wide On Over An Acre. Hvac Is Missing. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath. As-Is.

8. 2012-11-14
   listed $24,900 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Double Wide On Over An Acre. Hvac Is Missing. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath. As-Is.

9. 2012-11-13
   listed $24,900
10. 2012-08-23
    historical
11. 2010-09-19
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,181 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 114.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$552
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable loss: −$414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$99
• After-tax cash flow: $2,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #4472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,225

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.36%
• Current HPI: 321.53
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+381.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $144,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $149,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $159,000 Triad MLS
• 2013-02-01 Sold (MLS) $23,401 AMLSNC
• 2013-02-01 Sold (MLS) $23,401 TMLS
• 2012-12-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2012-11-14 Listed $24,900 AMLSNC
• 2012-11-14 Listed $24,900 TMLS
• 2012-11-13 Listed $24,900 TMLS
• 2012-08-23 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2010-09-19 Listed $29,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $552 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.