971 Bay Quarter Dr

Heathsville, VA 22473

$349,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 357 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-299/mo
• Annual: $-3,583/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $350k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?