971 Bay Quarter Dr · Heathsville, VA 22473

$349,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 357 Days on market

Built 1985 0.31 ac lot $166/sqft · 35% below area Est $540k · 35% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach house offers over 2,100 sq ft of updated living space in the desirable Bay Quarter Shores community. Enjoy Potomac River views from the upper deck and easy access to community amenities just steps away: pool, clubhouse, playground, picnic area, boat ramp, fishing pier, and sand beach. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring, solar tube lighting, and insulated windows and doors. The upper level includes a bright living area with a large bay window, dining room, and access to the freshly-stained deck overlooking the water. The lower level offers a flexible rec room space, two guest rooms, laundry area with washer and dryer, and a new wood stove with flue, perfect for cozy evenings. Perfect as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or rental property. Bay Quarter Shores is a quiet, friendly waterfront community ideal for outdoor living, boating, and beach days. Don't miss this affordable opportunity to enjoy river life. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Beach
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• PICNIC TABLES
• CLUBHOUSE
• BOAT RAMP
• BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $350k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,105
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -35.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
485 Clarke Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+0%)	3mo	$535,000	$253	70
113 Cod Dr	0.50mi	3/4.0	1,902 (-10%)	23mo	$525,000	$276	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-75,831
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-90,930
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22473

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $297,259

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
496 Bay Quarter Dr Heathsville, VA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,400	$1.61	13d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,999 Active 357 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,999 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,999 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,999 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,999 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,999 Active 346 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 345 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 341 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 340 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,999 Active 339 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $349,999 1055-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach house offers over 2,100 sq ft of updated living space in the desirable Bay Quarter Shores community. Enjoy Potomac River views from the upper deck and easy access to community amenities just steps away: pool, clubhouse, playground, picnic area, boat ramp, fishing pier, and sand beach. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring, solar tube lighting, and insulated windows and doors. The upper level includes a bright living area with a large bay window, dining room, and access to the freshly-stained deck overlooking the water. The lower level offers a flexible rec room space, two guest rooms, laundry area with washer and dryer, and a new wood stove with flue, perfect for cozy evenings. Perfect as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or rental property. Bay Quarter Shores is a quiet, friendly waterfront community ideal for outdoor living, boating, and beach days. Don't miss this affordable opportunity to enjoy river life. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2025-08-29
    price $374,999 1055-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach house offers over 2,100 sq ft of updated living space in the desirable Bay Quarter Shores community. Enjoy Potomac River views from the upper deck and easy access to community amenities just steps away: pool, clubhouse, playground, picnic area, boat ramp, fishing pier, and sand beach. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring, solar tube lighting, and insulated windows and doors. The upper level includes a bright living area with a large bay window, dining room, and access to the freshly-stained deck overlooking the water. The lower level offers a flexible rec room space, two guest rooms, laundry area with washer and dryer, and a new wood stove with flue, perfect for cozy evenings. Perfect as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or rental property. Bay Quarter Shores is a quiet, friendly waterfront community ideal for outdoor living, boating, and beach days. Don't miss this affordable opportunity to enjoy river life. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2025-06-26
    listed $379,000 Active 1055-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach house offers over 2,100 sq ft of updated living space in the desirable Bay Quarter Shores community. Enjoy Potomac River views from the upper deck and easy access to community amenities just steps away: pool, clubhouse, playground, picnic area, boat ramp, fishing pier, and sand beach. Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring, solar tube lighting, and insulated windows and doors. The upper level includes a bright living area with a large bay window, dining room, and access to the freshly-stained deck overlooking the water. The lower level offers a flexible rec room space, two guest rooms, laundry area with washer and dryer, and a new wood stove with flue, perfect for cozy evenings. Perfect as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or rental property. Bay Quarter Shores is a quiet, friendly waterfront community ideal for outdoor living, boating, and beach days. Don't miss this affordable opportunity to enjoy river life. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus $212,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Charming updated home in Bay Quarter Shores. This home offers an unfinished first floor with 1 bedroom and an additional room great for a 4th bedroom or office. The second floor has an updated kitchen with new stainless steel appliances and new flooring. The living room has a large bay window with water views. There are 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The community offers a boat ramp, pool, playground, golf cart zones and more!

20. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus $212,000

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Charming updated home in Bay Quarter Shores. This home offers an unfinished first floor with 1 bedroom and an additional room great for a 4th bedroom or office. The second floor has an updated kitchen with new stainless steel appliances and new flooring. The living room has a large bay window with water views. There are 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The community offers a boat ramp, pool, playground, golf cart zones and more!

21. 2020-08-18
    listed $229,900 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Charming updated home in Bay Quarter Shores. This home offers an unfinished first floor with 1 bedroom and an additional room great for a 4th bedroom or office. The second floor has an updated kitchen with new stainless steel appliances and new flooring. The living room has a large bay window with water views. There are 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The community offers a boat ramp, pool, playground, golf cart zones and more!

22. 2020-07-18
    listed $259,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,384/yr (+$115/mo · 93.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$2,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Heathsville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #22811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,646

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.89%
• Current HPI: 169.0605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $349,999 NNAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $374,999 NNAR
• 2025-06-26 Listed $379,000 NNAR
• 2020-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-09 Sold (MLS) $212,000 CBRAR
• 2020-08-18 Listed $229,900 CBRAR
• 2020-07-18 Listed $259,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,486 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.